The Rembis Report and Other Fascinating Topics - Volume LXVI

Hurricane Ian

October 02, 2022

Hurricane Ian

8 PM EDT Sunday - September 25, 2022

  • Position 17 N 80.8 W - Caribbean Sea, halfway between Jamaica and Honduras - 762 miles SSE of Clearwater, Florida

  • Tropical Storm - Maximum Winds 50 mph - Gusts 50 mph

  • Movement NW at 10 mph

  • Minimum Pressure 991 mb

The calm before the storm.

That is what they call it. And it is. Tonight, is beautiful and balmy. Nearly perfect Florida weather, barely a breeze.

The ninth tropical storm of the season has been named Ian. Not for any Ian in particular, because there are so many storms to name, but surely being watched by every fellow named Ian, to see what his namesake will do.

Nobody knows where it will go, but the cone of uncertainty suggests that our lovely state will be affected. People started hoarding yesterday. Store shelves are being emptied, plywood will soon be in short supply, and generators are being snapped up in anticipation of fallen power lines.

I took photos of my oak trees and my house. Nothing like a good before picture to compare and remember what was. Hopefully, I will not have terrible after photos to share.

The forecast suggests that Ian could become a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds above 130 MPH, possibly striking the coast as a Category 3, but that will still pack quite a punch and come in with devastating force.

This week's report is a bit different because I am writing my observations in real time as the storm approaches. Of course, nobody knows what will happen. A used car salesman I once knew would tell people this when they asked how long a car would last: "My crystal ball works the same way yours does. It doesn't."

So, I am going to schedule this report in advance, to drop next Sunday morning. I am hoping for the best. That we get some rain, a little wind to knock some dead twigs out of the tree, and that will be that. If I do see anything extraordinary, I plan to document it here as it happens. In the event of a power outage, I will be completely offline, but whatever work I do up until that moment will be recorded and delivered. If the report ends in the middle of a sentence, be assured that I am experiencing technical difficulties.

As you see at the top of this report, I bring you the latest storm info as of this writing and will do so every day until the storm passes or the power goes out, whichever comes first.

8 PM EDT Monday - September 26, 2022

  • Position 20.8 N 83.3 W - Caribbean Sea, 90 miles South of San Juan y Martinez Cuba - 492 miles SSW of Clearwater, Florida

  • Category 1 Hurricane - Maximum Winds 85 mph - Gusts 105 mph

  • Movement NNW at 11 mph

  • Minimum Pressure 965 mb

The frenzy has begun.

Mandatory evacuations are taking place in Pinellas and Hillsborough counties. Meteorologists are warning that this storm will be unlike anything Tampa Bay has ever experienced in our lifetimes. The Tampa Bay hurricane of 1921 was a Category 4, and Ian is now following precisely the same path as that storm.

The reason this one is slated to be so terrific, is because of the path and its slow steady crawl. Ian will practically stall out in the Gulf of Mexico, but keep churning with winds over 100 MPH, and if it does what they think it will, those winds will climb above 140 MPH.

This is how hurricanes are measured and categorized.

A Category 4 hurricane sitting comfortably just south of Tampa Bay will push water inland and create storm surge. Some fear it will be as high as 10 feet. That will not be good.

Here is the path right now.

Even if the center of the storm only skirts the coast, as shown here, the ocean will be pushed upstream on every river. That is what storm surge is, and why it is so dangerous to be in the way. This prediction also accounts for wind shear, which will slow the winds as it gets further north, impacting Clearwater as a Category 1 when it gets here.

I wonder how accurate their crystal ball is.

It was another quiet, beautiful day today. I have everything I need already. All of my shopping was done on Friday and Saturday. I heard about the lines of traffic and gas stations running out of fuel. I know a lot of people are worried and scared. That is human nature. But I am not. I love storms. It is a privilege to witness something so elegant and dangerous and to discover how fragile or strong everything around you will be. My house is 62 feet above sea level and is not in an evacuation zone. It may weather the storm, or it may suffer damage. But I won't need to worry about storm surge up here. The part of the county I live in could be considered the dividing ridge between the ocean and the bay. Maybe that is why they named the street a few blocks over Highland Avenue.

So, I am going to watch the wind and rain and lightning and see what happens.

5 AM EDT Tuesday - September 27, 2022

  • Position 22.3 N 83.7 W - San Luis, Cuba - 391 miles SSW of Clearwater, Florida

  • Category 2 Hurricane - Maximum Winds 110 mph - Gusts 135 mph

  • Movement North at 10 mph

  • Minimum Pressure 952 mb

Ian is pounding Cuba and growing to Category 3 status. The projection tracks have shifted eastward. As soon as it hits the warm waters of the Straights of Florida, it should intensify to Category 4.

This track will produce major storm surge in Punta Gorda. The strongest winds will impact Bradenton, the Sunshine Skyway Bridge, MacDill Air Force Base, and Downtown Tampa. It is practically the worst-case scenario that anyone imagines. The only thing that could make it worse is intensification to Category 4 or 5.

10 PM EDT Tuesday - September 27, 2022

  • Position 24.6 N 82.9 W - Dry Tortugas National Park - 228 miles South of Clearwater, Florida

  • Category 3 Hurricane - Maximum Winds 105 mph - Gusts 130 mph

  • Movement NNE at 9 mph

  • Minimum Pressure 947 mb

A while ago the track shifted to the east and there are tornado watches across south Florida, just north of Miami. Still a crap shoot on where landfall will occur, but the storm surge will be devastating, and Ian is likely to be a Category 4 storm when that happens.

There is nowhere to run. It is going to be quite sobering for a lot of people.

I can only imagine what it must have been like centuries ago here in Florida, before weather forecasting like we have now was even possible. A nice breezy night, like I have tonight here in Clearwater, would give me no indication of the buckets of rain that are on the way. Birds chirping at sunset. An otherwise quiet evening, still with summer warmth, leading us into autumn. The next day's storm would come as a complete surprise.

That is kind of the way it should be. In some ways, knowing what is coming cheats Mother Nature. It is natural for the Earth to cleanse itself. To flood away debris or burn off excess forests when they get crowded with tinder. It is natural. Whatever goes with it may have been meant to go, too. And whatever survives gets stronger.

7 AM EDT Wednesday - September 28, 2022

  • Position 25.9 N 82.8 W - Gulf of Mexico - 68 miles West of Marco Island, 138 miles South of Clearwater, Florida

  • Category 4 Hurricane - Maximum Winds 135 mph - Gusts 165 mph

  • Movement NNE at 8 mph

  • Minimum Pressure 937 mb

In a few hours Ian will make landfall. It is likely to be a Category 5 hurricane when it does. You may notice the barometric pressure drop as the storm intensifies. Barometric pressure is key to understanding how strong a storm really is. The lower the number, the stronger it is, because air molecules get denser.

11 AM EDT Wednesday - September 28, 2022

  • Position 26.3 N 82.5 W - Gulf of Mexico - 25 miles WSW of Sanibel Island, 111 miles South of Clearwater, Florida

  • Category 4 Hurricane - Sustained Winds 155 mph - Gusts 165 mph

  • Movement NNE at 8 mph

  • Minimum Pressure 937 mb

Ian is almost a Category Five.

CNN reports that the 40-mile-wide eyewall is touching the coast and that this is the most powerful hurricane ever to reach Florida's west side.

And it is slowing down, basically just sitting there, like a contestant planning their next move. Should I go directly east? A bit further north, perhaps? What would be most interesting? Whatever Ian decides to do it will be awesome and deadly. Every adjective to describe disaster; catastrophic, devastating, unprecedented, will all apply. What we usually only see on television will become reality for a lot of people in south Florida.

Shortly after writing this on Wednesday afternoon, my power went out. It was restored on Friday morning.

Click the link below to see what happened.

My hurricane experience in Clearwater was nothing more than a breeze and light rain. On Thursday, while the power was out all day, and central Floridians were battling heavy winds, I picked up branches in my yard and piled them on the curb. There was about enough to fill the bed of a small pickup truck. We were lucky.

I did see one bizarre anomaly I can't explain. At around 2:00 AM Thursday morning I was watching the trees blow in the breeze. I don't think gusts ever went much over 40 MPH in our neighborhood. The biggest branch to fall in my yard was only two inches thick. Watching the trees sway, enjoying the wind with the window opens, listening to generators hum in the distance, there were no stars, only low clouds coursing overhead. It was peaceful. I was looking to the north, where the wind was coming from, on the far edge of the pinwheel. There was light. I thought that maybe it was reflected light from distant streetlights. But this was not that kind of light. It was bright, like the sunrise, and it was flamingo pink. A huge cloud bank just lit up, and then it turned orange, and then it faded out, back to gray and white. There was no sound. It was not a flash. It lasted about a minute and then it was over. I went and got the camera and started videotaping the clouds. But nothing happened after that, so I have pictures of the dark with the rustle of leaves and branches swaying above me. I have no idea what that was, but I would welcome seeing it again.

Compared to everyone down in Fort Myers, I did pretty well. A forty-hour loss of power is way better than having your world turned upside-down or ending. As of Saturday night, CNN says that the Florida death toll is 66 lives. NBC says the total is 77, counting those who perished in Georgia and the Carolinas. Reporters tell us that Hurricane Ian is now the deadliest and most costly natural disaster Florida has ever seen, and that damage estimates will top $65 billion.

So, what happens now? Your crystal ball is as good as mine, but I'll bet that property insurance won't get any cheaper. And I would also bet that even with a beautiful opportunity like this, to start over down there and rebuild the power grid while there are no buildings in the way, it will not be done.

The extended power outages that result from storms could be cut drastically with buried cables. The United Kingdom has been strategically taking down energy pylons and burying cables since the 1960's. I recall reading about this program once in a National Geographic article some 20 years ago. It was championed by then Prince, now King Charles. Besides creating a sounder infrastructure, buried cables help foster wildlife by cutting down less trees, giving small animals and birds more places to thrive, and the world just looks nicer without wires. It can be done.

The other thing that will happen is that instead of stepping aside to leave some places wild, like those islands that got cut off when their causeways and bridges were washed away, as nature intended, mankind will stubbornly build back, bigger and better, and ruin it again. Because that is how people are.

No doubt, this is a huge disaster for Florida residents and businesses. Some places will not be made whole or recover. But you know who has it worse?

Pakistan.

Over 1,600 people have died in the floods that cover one third of the country, since the water began rising in June. Take a look. It is not like they have hills to climb on. The flood in the Sindh region is basically a 400-mile-long, 100-mile-wide lake that is a couple feet deep, with some sporadic dry spots on what little high ground they have.

Here is an overlay of how Pakistan compares in size to the United States.

Imagine that land mass with Georgia and north Florida as a lake.

Scientists estimate that these waters will not recede for another six months from now. 33 million people are displaced. Because it is mainly farmland, the price tag to fix the infrastructure here is around $10 billion. The World Bank is offering $323 million in direct aid to farmers to help them reestablish crops.

But throwing money at everyone to rebuild, whether it is in Pakistan or Florida, will not solve the real problem, which is global warming.

Glacial melt in the Himalayas is a huge part of the Pakistan floods, on top of the annual monsoon season that they have experienced for centuries. The region will no longer be sustainable for agricultural, or anything else, because these floods are not going to stop. It will be better for everyone to pack up and get out of the way.

Warmer temperatures from fossil fuels make hurricanes stronger. Getting out of the way to some degree is what should happen in Florida, too. Instead of new buildings, fix the ones that already exist. Leave some places alone and stop overdeveloping. Give it back to Mother Nature, before she takes it back. It wasn't ours to begin with, and it never will be. Not in the end.

As Chief Seattle of the Suquamish and Duwamish once said, "Humans merely share the earth. We can only protect the land, not own it."

I don't have a plan to solve global warming, but we need enclaves of wildlife within our developed areas. Leaving things alone and treading lightly makes sense to me. That is the best way to make the world a better place.

My crystal ball says, if you don't worry about the Earth, it won't worry about you. It will expel us when it needs to and be here long after we are gone.

Thanks for reading.

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